5 Kick-Arse Tactics To Seize Favorable Probabilities At Forex

Carl's 2 Cents:

The only strategy that ever worked for me mentioned in the following article is the double bottom.  It is a strong buy signal when the formation occurs.

The balloon strategy that involves option buying sounds risky to me.

Unfortunately, I never had any luck trading with moving averages.  I think different currencies require different combinations of moving averages.  M5 and M20 may work for EUR/USD.  M10 and M50 may be better for CAD/USD.  Also, the behavior of the currency may change from time to time.  In that case, a new combination of the moving averages is required.  That's why I only use moving averages and Bollinger bands to look at the trends, but not in the trade decision making process.

As you ponder how to balance your Forex portfolio, it is important to map out sure-fire strategies beforehand.

With your plan, you optimize your reward with respect to the expected risk, and tweak probabilities to your favor. Forex strategies must be disciplined and limit risk; simultaneously, it positions you at the most favorable advantage in the market.

A beginner’s strategy is the fundamental Moving Away Average, which is draws predictions from technical study over 12 periods, with each period 15 minutes in length. Trading decisions based on the MAA technique considers historical data to arrive at relatively safe predictions.

We use a simple algorithm for MAA. When currency price crosses above the twelfth period, simply move away it is a signal to stop and reverse. In this way a long position will be liquidated and a short position will be established, both using market orders. This system keeps trades constantly active in the market, with either a short position or a long position after the first signal. Risk is minimized.

Intermediate level strategy calls for analysis of support and resistance levels. The market likes to trade above support levels and trade below resistance levels. If either a support or a resistance level is broken, then the market follows through in the direction given. These breakpoints can be determined by analysis of the chart and assessment of where the chart has encountered unbroken support or resistance in times past. Identify these critical points and you can ascertain periods when you plan to open or close a position.

An advanced tactic that many consider exotic is the balloon strategy. The Balloon is an option that balloons, or increases in size when triggers are breached. Take the case of an investor who predicts that the dollar will gain strength against the Euro in the near future and is currently trading at one hundred, the investor will see one hundred ten as having strong resistance, but he also believes it will be broken.

Now, rather than buying straight US dollars at one hundred for the next six months the investor will purchase at “at the money” balloon call with a One Hundred Ten trigger and multiple of two. The investor then acquires a One Hundred Ten call in USD110mm. However if the dollar and Euro ever trade at or above one hundred ten, the 110 call will double to USD 20mm.

A day trader at heart? The Double Bottom is definitely for you. Significant to the short term trader, the double bottoms indicate a possible major change in currency sentiment and indicates a shifting trend. The pattern is used on all times frames, and many compelling intraday and long term bull markets are identified from this setup.

Analysts recognize that double bottoms quickly reflect strong support levels. When prices fail to break support in the down trending markets on more than one occasion we see powerful changes of trend. These reversal signals are revealing. The most common portal where a trader will open on a double bottom trade is upon a maneuver through the high of the two troughs. This high embodies secondary resistance, and when penetrated confirms a price reversal. From this vantage point, stops are placed around the lows of the patterns because a move below lows negates the pattern premise. Easy isn’t it?

To round of your arsenal of Forex implements, arm yourself with the ichimoku chart. These charts consist of following indicators, which identify support and resistance levels and create trading beacons in a manner that is akin to moving averages. A contrast however between both is that the Ichimoku chart lines swing forward in time, creating vast swathes of support and resistance zones while decreasing the risk of trading false breakouts. They are arrived at with data on trend existence, direction, support and resistance.

The four primary lines include:

• Turning Line = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past nine days
• Standard Line = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past twenty-six days
• Leading Span 1 = (Standard Line + Turning Line) / 2, plotted twenty-six days ahead of today
• Leading Span 2 = (Highest High + Lowest Low) / 2, for the past fifty days, plotted twenty-six days ahead of today’s date.

Commit these tactics to memory and bring home Your Gold..

About the Author:

A fan of Forex and radionics, Joseph R. Plazo, Ph.D offers leadership executive coaching and helps people find great jobs in the Philippines.

Written by:  Joseph Plazo