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5/23/07 10:00 PM -07:00
So I waited and waited and finally
decided that I could enter the USD/CAD
long club.
My order was filled today, 5/23/07, at
1.0835. Interestingly enough,
the price broke the previous low and hit
1.0811. I would be devastated if
it breaks the low of 1.0811 and closes
even lower tomorrow. I know, I
know. Commodity price is up, gas
price is up, raw material is up, gold is
up. Everything is up.
Fundamentally, CAD is just looking good
and that's why it is on fire.
However, I am "adequately" confident
about my momentum and / or
MACD histogram divergence analysis and
trading system.
The trades have been doing great for
me. Not good enough because I
still have my day job but what the heck,
so that I don't lock myself in the room
and trade all day and become
anti-social. But that's a
different topic and I digress.
Before I decided to long, I did do my
homework. Look at chart 1.
It's what it looks like right now.
Divergence between price and momentum
and MACD histogram. Take a look at
chart 2. Each time, there was
divergence between the price and the
MACD histgram, the price went up.
Particularly, in the chart where I
marked # 3, between 6/12/03 and 7/7/03,
when the down trend looked as if it
would never end, the magic happened.
On 6/12/03, there was a short
correction. A bigger correction
started on 7/7/03, CAD went from 1.33
level to 1.41 level.
That's why I thought it should work
this time. The wait is agonizing.
We shall see.
Let Me Know
What You Think
Chart 1
As of 9:10 PM PST, 5/23/07:
Click the chart to
see the full size
Chart 2
From November, 2002 to July, 2003:
Canadian Dollar went from 1.60 level to
1.30 level
Click the chart to
see the full size
Let Me Know
What You Think
Last
Updated:
Sunday, October 07, 2007 10:27:33 AM -0700 |
